CE-DAT - Centre for research on the epidemiology of disasters

The changing profile of modern conflict has led to an increased burden on civilian populations. The shift in the nature of conflict necessitates more accurate definitions and methods for the estimation for conflict-related mortality, namely the “excess mortality” which exceeds the expected mortality found in a country during normal situations. An overview is given of the epidemiologic and demographic methods available for estimating excess mortality, the current knowledge gaps and scientific challenges.

Prepared by: Ruwan Ratnayake, Olivier Degomme, Chiara Altare, Debarati Guha-Sapir, with Catrien Bijleved, Shanna Mehlbaum and Lotte Hoex
Date: July 2008 (Brussels, Belgium).

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The civil and political conditions in Iraq have steadily degenerated since the military invasion of March 19th, 2003. Civilians are increasingly bearing the brunt of relentless violence. Extremely poor security conditions are disrupting the lives and livelihoods of millions and the end is not in sight. Recent studies on the human costs of war have focused on measuring deaths due to violence. The debate around the numbers of excess deaths has opened a Pandora’s Box of methodological issues related to measuring mortality in conflicts, underlining the political sensitivities that accompany such exercises.

Prepared by: Debarati Guha-Sapir, Olivier Degomme
Date: June, 2007 (Brussels, Belgium).

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This is a brief analysis of the mortality and nutrition situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 2000-2006 based on a summary of surveys, academic articles, and UN documentation. In 2004 the IRC estimated that potentially 3.9 million people died from causes directly or indirectly attributable to the conflict during the years of 1998-2004. Most deaths were from easily preventable and treatable illnesses rather than violence and most mortality rates were higher in the unstable eastern provinces.

Prepared by: Debarati Guha-Sapir, Elizabeth Tschoegl, Olivier Degomme
Date: January 8th, 2007 (Brussels, Belgium).

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The main objective of the project was to obtain an in-depth understanding of UNHCR and to assess in-country collection and management of operational data so as to provide support in the form of recommendations towards the improvement of operations data management in country. This was done through three missions assessing the systems, procedures and formats used for the collection, compilation, monitoring, and reporting of baseline population and indicator data at the field level for yearly compilation in the Standards & Indicators Report.

Prepared by: The CE-DAT Team
Date: December 27, 2006 (Brussels, Belgium).

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This document analyses the human impact that the Angolan conflict has had on the civilian population in terms of mortality and malnutrition. Special attention is paid to the differences in impact over time and to the legal status of the population affected; residents, Internal Displaced Persons and refugees. Also the extent to which the conflict has caused an excess mortality and the main causes of this excess are assessed. The analysis are based on more than 90 quantitative surveys undertaken in Angola by several NGOs since 1999, as well as surveillance mortality data on Angolan refugee camps outside the borders.

Prepared by: Debarati Guha-Sapir, Vicente Terán Gómez
Date: June, 2006 (Brussels, Belgium).

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Within Sudan, the 6 million Darfurians are some of the very poorest. A third of this population has been driven from their homes and the most of the rest live amidst terror, aggression and violence. Recent surveys indicate that mortality in Darfur among accessible populations has declined in recent months. However, they also indicate that there remain large tracts where populations co-exist with violence and high insecurity and on whom we do not have precise information on either mortality or nutritional status.

Prepared by: Debarati Guha-Sapir, Olivier Degomme
Date: December 15th, 2005 (Brussels, Belgium).

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The exact number of deaths in the Darfur region due to the conflict will probably never be known. Estimating mortality in conflicts is a notoriously difficult exercise, even more so in Darfur where the conditions causing death are extremely variable. Malnutrition, epidemics and violence occur sporadically, claiming many lives in some areas and none in others. Recognising the importance of tracking mortality and estimating deaths, humanitarian aid agencies working in the region have undertaken mortality surveys among their beneficiaries at different times to assess the condition of their status and the severity of the crises.

Prepared by: Debarati Guha-Sapir, Olivier Degomme (with Mark Phelan)
Date: May 26th, 2005 (Brussels, Belgium).

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Armed conflict and public health interact in many different ways. This report explores the interfaces between health, armed conflict and global security by looking for answers to the following three questions. How does violent conflict adversely affect the health of people living through it? How do adverse health conditions affect conflict/security? And how can the delivery of health services play a role in reducing conflict? This report has reviewed the different ways public health, armed conflict and global security interact through a desk study of published and unpublished work.

Prepared by: Debarati Guha-Sapir, Willem Gijsbert van Panhuis, CRED, Rockefeller Foundation
Date: 2002

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